A loaded Major League Baseball card takes up our Tuesday betting experience, but all eyes will be on the AL East showdown in the Bronx.
The Orioles will look to close the small gap with the Yankees in the AL East on Tuesday night, the start of an early week series. Who has the edge? I’m breaking down each game across the MLB card, find out how to bet it below.
Cardinals vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Marlins (+125)
This is a pure fade of Lance Lynn, who can’t justify being a considerable road favorite. He has an xERA that ranks in the 37th percentile according to MLBStatcast and is not generating swings and misses, 48th percentile in whiff percentage.
He is walking batters at the highest rate since 2018 and is striking out 22% of hitters, the second lowest of his career.
After an extra innings game Monday, I’ll grab the home underdog Marlins to keep up.
Padres vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Phillies (-150)
Aaron Nola has been pitching at a high level this season, but not in his typical form. He has an ERA of 3.48, but is striking out the lowest rate of batters since his rookie season while focusing more on generating soft contact with his elite breaking ball pitches (88th percentile).
He is strong at limiting walks (68th percentile) which sets up nicely against a Padres team that is over-reliant on getting on base via walks, and I believe the difference between these two are greater than the price indicates.
Mariners vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (+100)
Both pitchers give me pause, but Triston McKenzie is due for a serious setback.
The right hander is walking more than 12% of batters this season and has been crushed by hard contact, sixth percentile in barrel percentage. He’ll face a Mariners team that is hitting the ball well, 10th in runs scored this month.
While Bryce Miller has struggled with limiting hard contact as well, fifth in barrel percentage, I believe his ability to limit free bases (59th percentile in walk rate), can keep Seattle in this one.
Reds vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (-125)
Cincinnati has a serious pitching edge on Tuesday with Nick Lodolo set to build on his strong start to the year.
He has a 2.93 ERA while maintaining a sturdy walk rate and an above average strikeout percentage. He’ll match up against fellow lefty Bailey Falter, who has been crushed by hard contact, 28th percentile in hard-hit percentage. This is indicated in his xERA, which is far higher than his actual ERA, 4.94 vs. 3.86 with a career low strikeout rate.
I’ll side with Cincy.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+100)
Arizona has a significant edge at the plate, third in OPS in the month of June, and should be able to offset any concerns for Slade Cecconi, who has a 6.70 ERA. To be fair, he has an xERA of 4.44, so there can be some upside for the right hander.
I’ll bet on seeing it Tuesday.
Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (+125)
A measuring stick series begins in the Bronx on Tuesday with the Orioles heading to New York to face the Yankees.
I’ll side with Baltimore on Tuesday. The team is third in OPS against left handed pitching, which sets up nicely against Yankees’ starter Nestor Cortes, and also has a quality arm in Albert Suarez on the bump.
Suarez is pitching above expectation (1.61 ERA vs. 3.43 xERA), but he has done a fine job of allowing hard contact, which bodes well against the powerful bats of the Yanks. Suarez is in the 79th percentile in barrel percentage and 60th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
I’ll take a shot on the road underdog.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Red Sox (-115)
Chris Bassitt isn’t worth this price tag for the floundering Blue Jays, walking the most batters of his career since 2018 while posting a stat profile that shows regression is looming. He has an ERA of 3.56 with an xERA of 4.14 and isn’t generating the necessary swings and misses (20th in chase percentage).
I’ll back Tanner Houck instead, who has been outstanding this season, walking a career low four percent and maintaining a high strikeout rate of 24% (65th percentile).
Boston has been better in June, and I expect it to keep up on Tuesday.
Tigers vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (+140)
Both teams are hitting below the league average in the month of June in terms of OPS, and I can’t justify backing Spencer Schwellenbach given the small sample size of three starts.
With a potentially lower scoring matchup, I’ll take a stab on the big underdog in Atlanta.
Rays vs. Twins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-165)
Pablo Lopez is due for a big surge through the summer, his numbers are far better than it looks on the surface. Despite a 5.33 ERA, he has an xERA of 3.28 while walking a career low five percent of batters.
Tampa Bay enters this matchup 22nd in OPS across the month of June, so I think this is a good time for Lopez to turn it on.
Giants vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cubs (-115)
Logan Webb is due for a big setback. Despite having an ERA of 3.02, he has a ton of concerning numbers this season.
Webb ranks in the first percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage and is in the ninth percentile in whiff percentage. He is generating no swings and misses and his xERA shows that he will slow down over the course of the season, posting a mark of 4.68.
Bettors are paying a tax on the name brand of Webb, I’m happy to fade him.
Mets vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-110)
The Mets are winners of six straight and get to follow up on its 14-2 win against the Rangers with another opportunity to win on Tuesday against a Texas team with a taxed bullpen.
Keep riding New York in closely lined matchups.
Astros vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Astros (-200)
The Astros have way too much firepower for the White Sox, who are 24th in OPS against left handed pitching.
While Framber Valdez is coming off arguably his worst start of the year, four innings pitched with five earned runs, I will trust him to bounce back against a lackluster White Sox team.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-180)
The Dodgers are the best hitting team against left handed pitching this season, which sets up nicely for a Tuesday night matchup at hitter friendly Coors Field in Colorado with the Rockies set to start Austin Gomber.
Gomber is off three dismal starts in June, posting an ERA of 12.27 in 11 innings pitched
Even with Mookie Betts on the IL, the Dodgers should have little issue on Tuesday.
Brewers vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (-140)
Angels’ starter Griffin Canning can’t be trusted to pitch up to this price tag against a quality team like the Brewers, who rate in the top five in terms of OPS.
Canning is striking out15% of batters (ninth percentile) and has been crushed by hard contact (19th percentile). Milwaukee should have little issue generating run support and tagging a bottom five bullpen in terms of ERA after Canning.
Royals vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (-135)
Kansas City is a playoff team, full stop. The team continues to be rated as one that isn’t and is always a team I’m eyeing to bet inside of -150, especially against an Athletics team that is hitting .213 in the month of June.